In the three months between January and April 2024, the population of British Columbia increased by 36,597. But despite this growth, Translink warns of 50% service cuts by 2026.
Unsurprisingly, natural changes—birth and death of the existing population—did not contribute to this growth, but accounted for a decrease of 3%, namely 1,108 people.
So where did the majority of the growth come from? Interprovincial migration accounted for 7% while the remaining 90% is attributed to international migration, with British Columbia ranking third among Canadian provinces to welcome international migrants, behind Ontario and Quebec.
By 2024, BC Stats is projecting a population of 7.9 million, up from 5.5 million in 2023.
As the population of BC continues to grow, Translink is on its back foot when it comes to providing the necessary services to meet its population’s demand.
Translink Warns of 50% Service Cuts by 2026
Translink cites a $600 million shortfall that, if not resolved, will result in the following service cuts, projected by Translink:
- Cancelling 50% of its services, including up to 145 bus routes and all NightBus services
- Up to 30% reduction of SkyTrain and SeaBus services
- Eliminating the West Coast Express, the weekday commuter rail that runs 69 km between Mission and Vancouver
- Reducing HandyDART, an accessible door-to-door shared transit, by 35 per cent
- Halting investment in road maintenance and local infrastructure upgrades
But let’s back up for a moment. $600 million shortfall?
This is a staggeringly high amount given that before ridership took a drastic hit due to Covid-19 lockdowns and closures of schools and businesses, 2019 was a record-breaking year for transit ridership across Metro Vancouver.
Furthermore, fast-forward to April 2024 when Metro Vancouver transit ridership has rebounded to pre-pandemic overcrowding levels .
How can a $600 million shortfall be reconciled with record-high ridership?
The $6 Billion Dollar Plan
There’s the matter of the Surrey-Langley and the Broadway to Arbutus Skytrain expansion projects.
As of August 2024, the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain expansion project is projected to cost nearly $6 billion ($2 billion over budget) and comes with a new completion date of 2029 (delayed from late 2028). But the province of BC is footing the majority of this bill, according the Rob Fleming, the Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure, who cited “inflation and supply chain pressures” as the cause for the ballooning budget.
How does Translink account for this dire financial situation?
The short-sighted solution is to somehow recover this $600 million shortfall through further government subsidies and for Translink to go on its merry way, only to run up against the same obstacle. It is inexcusable and unsustainable for a transit system with ballooning ridership in a province exploding with population growth to be hobbling along on its last leg, bringing in zero profits, and continuously begging for funding.
Tokyo Metro’s October 2024 IPO
It is high time to admit that the current system is not working for more reasons than one, and to commit to an earnest study of other models that do not rely on government handouts and year-over-year deficit spending.
Take Tokyo Metro’s system, Japan’s second-largest railway company by passenger volume, as an example. Tokyo Metro ended March 2024 with a 46 billion yen (CAD $419 million) profit and recently made an impressive debut on the stock market as Japan’s biggest IPO in 6 years.
The transportation privatization model is not new to Japan. Japanese National Railways (JNR) was privatized in 1987, with ownership distributed across six passenger companies and one freight company. This transition to privatization has rid JNR of the need to rely on government subsidies and stop operating at a financial loss.
Some mundate but telling signs of a thriving transit system in Tokyo are the walls, ceilings, and even floors of the Tokyo Metro which have frequently rotating and creative marketing and are rarely, if ever, empty. Contrast this with the ad space on bus shelters, SkyTrain and Translink buses where advertisement spaces are frequently out of date or completely bare.
It is time for BC to stop settling for the status quo and be open to learning from systems that have proved to be profitable and successful.